UFC 241 Free Picks

24417 Derek Brunson (+135) vs 24418 Ian Heinisch (-155)

24417 Derek Brunson +135

UFC 241 Free Picks

The hard-throwing Derek Brunson (19-7) has been fighting in the UFC since 2012 and at the age of 35 still feels has a lot to prove.  He’ll have a stiff test come Saturday night when he faces off against rising star Ian Heinisch (13-1).  Brunson has been training with champion Kamaru Usman for this fight camp and looks great physically. Check out his picture on his social media.  The bookmakers opened this fight incorrectly by posting a line of -200 in favor of Heinisch which was immediately corrected by smarter bettors. 

Brunson’s Fighter IQ

Brunson is a very inconsistent fighter with poor fight IQ but possesses all the necessary skills to beat the younger fighter in this matchup.  Heinisch has poor takedown defense and if Brunson utilizes his wrestling, he could very likely win this fight.  That’s a big “if” though because Brunson likes to stand and bang. As a result of this, he’s been knockout several times in fights.  Heinisch, on the other hand, has sneaky good scrambling ability and a decent head on his shoulders so far in his young MMA career.  He’s relentless and fights smartly but my numbers say this fight is a toss-up.  

Brunson did fight a lot smarter recently against Elias Theodorou and used his wrestling to secure a victory.  The underdog has a massive 7-inch reach in this fight as well which is astounding.  Heinisch is 2-0 in his young UFC career. He has a very determined mindset and that alone can win him the fight.  The inconsistency that Brunson displays from fight to fight is what costs him.  

If Brunson fights strategically and takes advantage of the holes in the young fighter’s game, there’s no doubt he can win this fight.  If he decides to fight like he has done in many previous fights and hasn’t learned from his mistakes Heinisch will edge out a win.  At the current odds of +135 that gives us an implied probability of almost 43%.  

Big Line Move Towards Brunson

Even after the big line move, there’s still value on Brunson at +135.  If you continuously put your money in situations where you feel the fight is a coin flip and you can get better than +110 you will make money in the long run.  By no means is this a slam dunk because of Brunson’s poor decision making in fights. Training with a champion and elite wrestler like Kamaru Usman is a good indication that Brunson may fight more wisely in this matchup.  

UFC 241 Free Pick

The value is on Derek Brunson and I believe it’s worth a bet.

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