We’re 3 for our last 3 in teaser free plays. And we’re about to be 4-0 after this Wild Card Weekend Teaser hits. As always, we’re going to be teasing through key numbers. For this pick, we’ll be taking two underdogs in low-scoring games. If you need a refresher on teasers, head over to our betting basics page.
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Houston Texans
The first game we’re going to tease for the Wild Card Weekend teaser is the first game on Saturday. The Bills have been bet down from 3-point underdogs to +2.5 at most shops. An advantage teaser is when you take a +2.5 up through 3, 4, 6 and 7. So, that is exactly what we’re going to do.
The Bills are a great team for teasers because they play excellent defense, and their games are generally low-scoring. In a low-scoring game, points are worth even more. And with the Bills elite D ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, they should be able to keep this game close.
The best thing the Texans do is throw the ball with Deshaun Watson to his elite #1 receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. However, the Bills defense excels against the pass, ranking #5 overall. Buffalo also has one of the best shutdown corners in the league with Tre White. While #2 WR Will Fuller says he wants to play, if he does it will be at less than 100%. With White locking down Hopkins. The Texans offense may struggle to have any consistency moving the ball.
Also, while the Bills do not have a scary offense, the Texans defense is much worse. Houston ranks 26th against the pass and 22nd against the run. Whereas Buffalo ranks 23rd passing the ball, and 17th in rushing efficiency. All of this adds up to the Bills offense doing enough to keep this game close, or even win outright.
Wild Card Weekend Teaser Leg #1: Bills from +2.5 to +8.5
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5)
Philadelphia is being so disrespected in this game. Who are the Seahawks to be road favorites against a team they are equal to in talent? Seattle concluded the season ranked 8th in overall efficiency, while Philly finished the season ranked 12th. However, Philadelphia put up those numbers dealing with injuries all year long, while the Seattle injuries have only now started to pile up.
Seattle’s top-tier safety Quandre Diggs has missed the past two games with an ankle sprain. There is no guarantee that he will suit up on Sunday, but even if he does he’ll be at less than 100%. The Seahawks will also be without their starting left tackle Dwayne Brown. These are not just starters, they’re two of Seattle’s best players. Jadaveon Clowney did not participate in practice but is expected to play. With that said, he has been a major disappointment after coming over from Houston.
All of this and I haven’t even mentioned that the Seahawks are without both starting running backs, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. While Marshawn Lynch is a nice addition, Seattle has relied on its running game all season long, and Lynch can’t come close to replacing the two-back system the Seahawks had in place.
On the Philadelphia side, they will be without wide receivers Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor. However, the Eagles may be getting back some key pieces they will sorely need. Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders were limited participants in practice. As were starting RT Lane Johnson, starting DT Fletcher Cox, and starting DE Dereck Barnett. Barnett and Cox are expected to play, but it’s up in the air on Johnson and Ertz.
Battle in the Trenches: Edge Eagles
Johnson and Ertz would be huge boosts to the offense. But having Cox and Barnett will keep the Eagles best unit intact, their defensive line. Philly’s D-line ranks 3rd overall in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders. Compare that to the Seahawks O-line at #15 and we have a decided mismatch. On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s D-line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards while Philly’s O-line ranks 14th. With an advantage at the line on both sides of the ball, I feel confident that the Eagles can keep this game within a TD at home.
Wild Card Weekend Teaser Leg #2: Eagles from +1.5 to +7.5