Free Pick UFC 240

Free Pick UFC 240

24525 Alexis Davis (+170) vs 24526 Viviane Araujo (-200)

24525 Alexis Davis +170

Thirty-four-year-old Canadian Alexis Davis (19-9) squares off against thirty-two years old Brazilian Viviane Araujo (7-1).  Davis has lost her last two fights by decision but sports an impressive resume with a TKO win over current champion Amanda Nunes and two victories over the next title challenger in Liz Carmouche.  She has fought the best of the best in women’s MMA for twelve years. On the other hand, we have the untested UFC newcomer who is 1-0 inside the organization. Araujo is very talented, dangerous and highly touted but I prefer to put my money to work in situations like this. 

Davis is the Pick

I’m betting the underdog who happens to be a veteran in the sport with a proven track record against the untested newcomer.  Not to mention that this fight takes place in Davis’ backyard in Canada.  Home country fighters often get the nod in close fights and you must certainly give weight to that part of the equation.  Betting on a fighter that fights in his native land is a very strong angle I implement in my MMA betting strategy.  The line opened at -270 in favor of Araujo and the line has moved significantly in Davis’ favor.  I believe value resides still with Davis at +170 odds at the time of this writing. MMA lines tend to move a lot early and as a sport bettor it’s best to get your money down earlier if you suspect the line will move.  This line move makes a lot of sense considering the circumstances.  

MMA Betting is Different

MMA betting is different than betting a football or basketball point spread scenario at -110 odds.  The goal when betting MMA is to have more dollars and cents in your pocket at the end of a betting card and your winning percentage doesn’t mean as much compared to other sports.  The majority of my wagers are on underdogs and this is another perfect example here with Davis.  

Free Pick UFC 240

We have the more experienced fighter with the home crowd on her side and possibly the judges as well.  We’ve seen so many cases where the home town fighter gets the nod in close decision fights. Araujo will be fighting outside of her home country of Brazil for the first time in her career and enters uncharted territory.  Alexis Davis +170 is a bet where I believe the reward is well worth the risk.

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